by Tracy McCue, Sumner Newscow — Sumner County Emergency Management Director James Fair said after a statewide conference call during the noon hour, the tornado threat seems to be diminishing some for the area, but people could still see a tornado or two. He said there is potential for a VERY large hail storm and damaging straight-line winds which are more serious threats during today’s weather event.

Here was the latest bulletin issued by the National Weather Service:

MAIN FORECAST CHANGES WERE TO SPEED UP THE ONSET OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT LESSENING THE
STRONG/VIOLENT LONG-TRACK TORNADO POTENTIAL.

EXPECTING STORMS TO INITIATE POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 1PM...AS LARGE
SCALE ASCENT EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERSPREADS THE WARM
SECTOR...AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ERODES. ANTICIPATING SCATTERED
STORMS TO INITIATE GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR NEAR
THE DRYLINE...AND ALSO OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL KS WHERE
DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH INTERSECTS A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL KS. EXTREME INSTABILITY AND
40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A
FEW TORNADOES.

AS PREVIOUS FORECASTERS MENTIONED...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL
BE ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL TO THE KANSAS PORTION OF THE
DRYLINE...WHICH WILL TEND TO INHIBIT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND FAVOR
MORE MIXED MODE/LINEAR STORMS. NEARLY ALL SHORT-TERM HIRES
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. ADDITIONALLY...ALL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ENVIRONMENTAL LOW-LEVEL HELICITY WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE
BEFORE 7PM. THESE FACTORS SUPPORT A LESSER THREAT FOR LONG-TRACK
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. HOWEVER...IF STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE
INTO THE EVENING AND/OR SUPERCELLS MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY WILL SUPPORT A
HIGHER STRONG/VIOLENT LONG-TRACK TORNADO THREAT THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST KS...POSSIBLY AFTER
DARK. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN
FURTHER SOUTH OVER OK AND NORTHWEST TX WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
ORIENTED MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE.

FURTHERMORE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
DEVELOPING...AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.

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