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Sunday feature: Crunching the numbers again on Sumner County’s rising COVID numbers

Sumner County Covid numbers since March 26. (Click to enlarge) 

by Tracy McCue, Sumner Newscow — What a difference five months make. On July 22, we did a “crunching the numbers” COVID-19 article.

We were all worked up. The number of COVID-19 cases in Sumner County had risen to 72 for the first time and the active case count was 38 (see article here).

If only it was still that good.

Fast forward to Dec. 13, and COVID numbers are beyond anything close to those on July 22. The numbers, depending on who is collecting the data, has now reached quadruple figures. The Kansas Department of Health and Environment has Sumner County with 1,060 total cases. The Sumner County Health Department has it at 949.

Sumner County confirmed COVID 19 Cases
Date No. of KDHE cases No. of SHD cases Active cases
11-Dec 1060 949 245
4-Dec 914 833 216
20-Nov 658 628 177
13-Nov 516 536 131
6-Nov 422 415 111
23-Oct 276 277 41
16-Oct 242 242 17
2-Oct 213 211 19
25-Sep 201 198 30
11-Sep 160 156 20
28-Aug 121 117 11
21-Aug 110 110 12
14-Aug 102 104 6
7-Aug 94 99 19
31-Jul 94 97 19
24-Jul 85 78 23
17-Jul 58 62 26
10-Jul 32 32 20
1-Jul 13 13 1
26-Jun 10 10 1
19-Jun 9 9 1
12-Jun 9 9 1
5-Jun 8 8 1
29-May 8 8 2
22-May 6 6 2
15-May 6 6 3
8-May 4 4 1
15-Apr 3 3 1
2-Apr 2 2 2
26-Mar 1 1 1

Perhaps, the current number of 245 active cases is the most eye-popping stats. That figure is now 6.45 times the rate as it was in July.

Every week Sumner County has broken a new active case record since mid-October.

On Oct. 16, Sumner had 17 active cases. The next week, the active case rose to 41. By Nov. 5 for the first time, the active cases rose above 100 and it has not decreased since. It climbed over 200 case count when 216 cases were recorded on Dec. 4. This week, it rose to 245.

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Sumner County is currently in the red zone in all school gating metrics which measures COVID-19 testing rates. If misery loves company, Sumner County is in good company. While the number of cases and rates continue to rise in Sumner, so is the case in all the counties surrounding Sedgwick.

Here is the new case rate per 100,000 residence from Nov. 22 to Dec. 2 where every Kansas county is in the red zone.

Two-week new case cumulative incidence rate by county
Cowley 1175 per 100,000
Butler 1206
Harvey 1040
Reno 1218
Kingman 1440
Harper 1049
Sumner 1160

As one can see Sumner County is about right in the middle with 1,160 cases per 100,000 resident rate.

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Click to enlarge.

Sumner County does not do well as far as the percentage of tests that are positive. Sumner has a 32.2 percent positive rate of those 649 patients tested. Only Reno County has a similar rate of 26.21 percent.

Dec. 13, 2020 Confirmed cases Patients tested % testing positive
Cowley 2009 2073 15.29
Butler 4213 3595 17.77
Harvey 2161 1622 10.17
Reno 6138 5102 26.21
Kingman 473 519 13.49
Harper 359 338 12.13
Sumner 1060 649 32.2

For an interesting perspective, these were the figures for the two previous weeks of July 22, 2020.

July 22, 2020 Confirmed cases Patients tested % testing positive
Cowley 118 2051 5.7
Butler 131 3724 3.5
Harvey 117 2889 4
Reno 163 3762 4.3
Kingman 5 284 1.7
Harper 6 375 1.6
Sumner 72 901 7.99

As one could see, Sumner County did not do well with these rates either in July. But what is astounding about these figures that in the two-week period at the beginning of July, 901 people were tested compared to 649 recently. Yet the percentage of those who are positive has leaped from 7.99 to 32.2 percent!

It is safe to say, those who prognosticated that the COVID-19 virus might wither away during the summer, were disappointed. And those who thought when the cold hit, the virus numbers would rise, was right.

The good news is, vaccines appear to be on their way.

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