Sunday feature: Crunching the numbers again on Sumner County’s rising COVID numbers
by Tracy McCue, Sumner Newscow — What a difference five months make. On July 22, we did a “crunching the numbers” COVID-19 article.
We were all worked up. The number of COVID-19 cases in Sumner County had risen to 72 for the first time and the active case count was 38 (see article here).
If only it was still that good.
Fast forward to Dec. 13, and COVID numbers are beyond anything close to those on July 22. The numbers, depending on who is collecting the data, has now reached quadruple figures. The Kansas Department of Health and Environment has Sumner County with 1,060 total cases. The Sumner County Health Department has it at 949.
| Sumner County confirmed COVID 19 Cases | |||
| Date | No. of KDHE cases | No. of SHD cases | Active cases |
| 11-Dec | 1060 | 949 | 245 |
| 4-Dec | 914 | 833 | 216 |
| 20-Nov | 658 | 628 | 177 |
| 13-Nov | 516 | 536 | 131 |
| 6-Nov | 422 | 415 | 111 |
| 23-Oct | 276 | 277 | 41 |
| 16-Oct | 242 | 242 | 17 |
| 2-Oct | 213 | 211 | 19 |
| 25-Sep | 201 | 198 | 30 |
| 11-Sep | 160 | 156 | 20 |
| 28-Aug | 121 | 117 | 11 |
| 21-Aug | 110 | 110 | 12 |
| 14-Aug | 102 | 104 | 6 |
| 7-Aug | 94 | 99 | 19 |
| 31-Jul | 94 | 97 | 19 |
| 24-Jul | 85 | 78 | 23 |
| 17-Jul | 58 | 62 | 26 |
| 10-Jul | 32 | 32 | 20 |
| 1-Jul | 13 | 13 | 1 |
| 26-Jun | 10 | 10 | 1 |
| 19-Jun | 9 | 9 | 1 |
| 12-Jun | 9 | 9 | 1 |
| 5-Jun | 8 | 8 | 1 |
| 29-May | 8 | 8 | 2 |
| 22-May | 6 | 6 | 2 |
| 15-May | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 8-May | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| 15-Apr | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 2-Apr | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 26-Mar | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Perhaps, the current number of 245 active cases is the most eye-popping stats. That figure is now 6.45 times the rate as it was in July.
Every week Sumner County has broken a new active case record since mid-October.
On Oct. 16, Sumner had 17 active cases. The next week, the active case rose to 41. By Nov. 5 for the first time, the active cases rose above 100 and it has not decreased since. It climbed over 200 case count when 216 cases were recorded on Dec. 4. This week, it rose to 245.
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Sumner County is currently in the red zone in all school gating metrics which measures COVID-19 testing rates. If misery loves company, Sumner County is in good company. While the number of cases and rates continue to rise in Sumner, so is the case in all the counties surrounding Sedgwick.
Here is the new case rate per 100,000 residence from Nov. 22 to Dec. 2 where every Kansas county is in the red zone.
| Two-week new case cumulative incidence rate by county | ||
| Cowley | 1175 | per 100,000 |
| Butler | 1206 | |
| Harvey | 1040 | |
| Reno | 1218 | |
| Kingman | 1440 | |
| Harper | 1049 | |
| Sumner | 1160 | |
As one can see Sumner County is about right in the middle with 1,160 cases per 100,000 resident rate.
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Sumner County does not do well as far as the percentage of tests that are positive. Sumner has a 32.2 percent positive rate of those 649 patients tested. Only Reno County has a similar rate of 26.21 percent.
| Dec. 13, 2020 | Confirmed cases | Patients tested | % testing positive |
| Cowley | 2009 | 2073 | 15.29 |
| Butler | 4213 | 3595 | 17.77 |
| Harvey | 2161 | 1622 | 10.17 |
| Reno | 6138 | 5102 | 26.21 |
| Kingman | 473 | 519 | 13.49 |
| Harper | 359 | 338 | 12.13 |
| Sumner | 1060 | 649 | 32.2 |
For an interesting perspective, these were the figures for the two previous weeks of July 22, 2020.
| July 22, 2020 | Confirmed cases | Patients tested | % testing positive |
| Cowley | 118 | 2051 | 5.7 |
| Butler | 131 | 3724 | 3.5 |
| Harvey | 117 | 2889 | 4 |
| Reno | 163 | 3762 | 4.3 |
| Kingman | 5 | 284 | 1.7 |
| Harper | 6 | 375 | 1.6 |
| Sumner | 72 | 901 | 7.99 |
As one could see, Sumner County did not do well with these rates either in July. But what is astounding about these figures that in the two-week period at the beginning of July, 901 people were tested compared to 649 recently. Yet the percentage of those who are positive has leaped from 7.99 to 32.2 percent!
It is safe to say, those who prognosticated that the COVID-19 virus might wither away during the summer, were disappointed. And those who thought when the cold hit, the virus numbers would rise, was right.
The good news is, vaccines appear to be on their way.

























